Australasian Equities

Fat Prophets
Australasian Equities

Speculative

high

Buy

Gold Production to Quadruple Between 2027 and 2030 St Barbara (ASX: SBM), an Australian gold producer with operations in Papua New Guinea and Canada, is now entirely debt-free, amassing A$504 million in cash in a single quarter. A major investment from a Chinese partner closed in early April, fully funding an expansion that is expected to nearly quadruple annual gold production from 48,000 ounces in 2027 to 191,000 ounces by 2030. Operations in both Papua New Guinea and Nova Scotia now have the

Generation Development Group

Core

medium

Buy

FUM Cross $4 Billion, Cementing a Market-Leading Position Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG) completed the transfer of $1.8 billion in new client portfolios in May, pushing total funds under management above $4 billion. Separately, Colonial First State, which oversees $136 billion in retirement savings, selected the company’s retirement income and tax-effective investment products for their largest-ever retirement expansion, launching in August 2026 alongside Challenger and BlackRock. With two structural growth themes now running simultaneously and BlackRock holding a minority stake, the long-term earnings runway for

Judo Capital

Speculative

high

Hold

Getting Stronger Judo Capital (ASX: JDO) completed a $750 million loan securitisation in which it packaged up a portion of its business loans and sold the associated risk to outside investors. This strengthened its capital position to 13.2% and is expected to improve returns on shareholders’ funds by 25 to 30 basis points in 2027, without reducing the size of its loan book. Pricing was significantly better than its first deal in 2023. However, returns on equity remain below the cost

Treasury Wine Estates

Core

medium

Hold

Hard Work of Rebuilding Has Just Begun Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) is well placed to benefit, given a strong presence in the premium end of the wine market. New CEO Sam Fischer delivered a better-than-expected update, though shares still slipped. The CFO is retiring in September 2026, and a prominent global wine industry investor is publicly criticising TWE’s excessive stock levels and pricing discipline while quietly building a stake in the company. A bid may not be far away. The strategy day on 4 June must deliver. In our

Austal

Core

medium

Hold

New Boss and Order Book Stocked Up Austal (ASX: ASB) has confirmed has replaced the CEO in the US business after a period of instability that resulted in an accounting error, cutting full-year profit guidance by 18% to A$110 million. The company has 12 vessels currently under construction for the US Navy and Coast Guard. The order book is well stocked, and Australia’s Henderson yard is positioned for over +20 years of continuous work. Strong order visibility is offset by real execution risk,

BHP

Core

medium

Buy

BHP Hits an All-Time High as Copper Becomes the Primary Earnings Driver BHP (ASX: BHP) reached an all-time share price high this month, driven by copper prices. Copper has now overtaken iron ore as the company’s primary earnings driver, with 1H26 profits up 22% and dividends rising 46% to US$0.73 per share. With world-class, low-cost copper assets already in production, BHP has unmatched leverage to one of the most in-demand metals of the decade. In our last tech update on the 23rd of April, we noted that

Mirvac

Core

medium

Hold

Housing Shortage? Solution: 2 Week Homes Mirvac (ASX: MGR) is building a significant portfolio of purpose-built rental apartments, currently at 2,200 with a target of 5,000, backed by a $1.8 billion partnership with two major institutional investors. The company is also trialling factory-built homes in south-west Sydney, cutting construction time by roughly half and waste by 60%. Though near-term earnings are under pressure from higher borrowing costs, softer profit margins on home sales and rising construction costs. The strategy is credible, but the financial benefits

Fortescue

Speculative

high

Hold

Fortescue Leans Into Chinese Capital and Equipment Fortescue (ASX: FMG) is coming under growing pricing pressure as China’s state-owned buyer methodically shifts contract terms in its favour. China purchases roughly 95% of Pilbara iron ore production, providing significant leverage over what Fortescue receives per tonne. In response, Fortescue is committing heavily to renewable energy, with over 1.4 gigawatts of solar capacity under construction across Western Australia, targeting completion by 2028. The renewable energy investment is credible and progressing, but diminishing pricing power

Evolution Mining

Speculative

high

Hold

Gold and Copper Reserves UP Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) delivered a strong 3Q26, reaching a solid net cash position on the back of record cash flows. The total volume of gold and copper identified in the ground grew after a full year of production, which is an encouraging sign for the long-term future of the miner. Full-year gold production guidance of 710,000 to 780,000 ounces remains unchanged. In our last tech update on the 16th of April, we noted that “Evolution Mining is reasserting upward

Whitehaven Coal

Speculative

high

Buy

Chinese Mine Disaster Triggers Tighter Coal Supply Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) is Australia’s largest dedicated coal exporter. Coal is going to remain part of the energy mix for far longer than some investors thought. Chinese authorities requesting approval for large volumes of new coal-fired power stations points to sustained import demand from Asia, amidst supply disruptions, including the sad accident this week. This follows a surge in coal prices since January, partly driven by ME supply disruptions. Whitehaven has direct leverage

Sandfire Resources

Speculative

high

Buy

Two Accelerants, One Metal The copper story has always had structural bones – electrification, the energy transition, and an urbanising global middle class. What has changed recently is that two new demand accelerants have arrived simultaneously, the supply side has signalled it is struggling to keep pace, and a key pricing signal – the treatment and refining charge, or TC/RC – has effectively collapsed toward zero. When smelters are competing for feedstock rather than the other way around, that is not

Qantas

Core

high

Hold

Ceasefire Hopes Lift Shares as Fuel Cost Pressures Show Signs of Easing Qantas shares have been tracking higher on Iran ceasefire hopes, which will take pressure off jet fuel costs. This would be a welcome relief given the 2nd half fuel bill blew out to A$3.1–3.3B (from A$2.5B pre-war). Meanwhile, Project Sunrise’s first long range Sydney to London/New York jet has wont be delivered until April next year, which is the third delay since ‘23, pushing anticipated premium route revenue out further to late next year.

Genesis Minerals

Speculative

high

Hold

21 Million Reasons Genesis Minerals has just told the market it holds 18.9 million ounces of gold resources at 2.1g/t and 4.4 million ounces in reserves at 1.9g/t – and those figures, on a pro forma basis following the pending Magnetic Resources acquisition, rise to 21.3Moz and 5.4Moz respectively. The scale of the inventory being assembled is remarkable, and the May corporate presentation makes the path to monetising it more tangible. While the underlying traction at the miner is impressive,

HUB24

Core

medium

Buy

Guaranteed Income for Life Available Through HUB24 HUB24 (ASX: HUB) launched a new retirement income product in partnership with life insurer TAL. The product allows retirees to receive a guaranteed income for the rest of their lives, regardless of how long they live or whether their original savings run out. Total funds administered reached $151.7 billion, up 22% year-on-year. The company has ranked first among Australia’s financial platforms for net inflows over eight consecutive quarters. First-half underlying profit rose 35%, and net

Xero

Core

medium

Buy

The Integration Tax Xero delivered a full-year revenue beat in FY26, with the core platform performing ahead of our assumptions while Melio integration costs drove reported profit lower. Operating revenue reached NZ$2,753m, up +31% (+28% in constant currency, +21% organically excluding Melio). The result validates the fundamental thesis, but it did impact near-term margin visibility, leading to a negative market reaction on the day of release. The organic business is materially stronger than the reported headline suggests. Excluding Melio, revenue grew +21%

Fiducian

Core

medium

Buy

Growing the Adviser Network While the Rest of the Industry Shrinks Fiducian (ASX: FID) is quietly expanding its adviser network at a time when the broader industry saw some shrinkage. Fiducian now has a team of 83 qualified advisers across a mix of company-employed staff and independently run franchise offices. The firm added three new franchise locations after completing several smaller acquisitions this financial year. The company is actively looking for further client-base acquisitions to bolt onto their centralised operating platform. In our

Telstra

Core

medium

Buy

Research Today, Competitive Advantage Tomorrow Telstra (ASX: TLS) shares have been a relatively safe haven amid the recent broader market volatility and pullback. The blend of strong cash flows and a growing dividend has appealed, with pricing power across the dominant mobile business having improved in a more rational local market in recent years. The telco has passed peak spending, and AI-related initiatives are likely to reduce the cost base further in the coming years, improving cash flow generation. Both Telstra and Vodafone

Macquarie Group

Core

medium

Buy

57 Years of Unbroken Profitability Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG) reported FY26 net profit of $4.85 billion, up 30%, with all four business divisions contributing to growth. Momentum improved in the second half, with 2H26 alone producing a record $3.19 billion profit. Their commodity trading and energy markets division led the way, surging 49% as Middle East tensions drove volatile energy prices and strong client demand for risk management. The asset management division rose 27%, boosted by performance fees on infrastructure investments. The

James Hardie Industries

Core

medium

Buy

The Trough Year James Hardie shares have had a tough past year, falling ~30% against a flattish ASX200. Elevated mortgage rates in the US have hampered the company’s largest market, and many institutional investors have never fully made their peace with the scale of the AZEK acquisition. The question heading into this week’s results was not just whether the quarterly results were any good, but what the outlook would be and whether management could begin rebuilding credibility with the broader market.

Rio Tinto

Core

medium

Buy

Recycling Capital Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) is reshaping its portfolio in two directions simultaneously. In Western Australia, Rio is exploring the sale of a minority stake in the power network that supplies their iron ore operations, freeing up capital while keeping full operational control. A new 30-year solar energy agreement will also cut diesel costs at those operations. Second, they are evaluating a larger investment in Los Azules, one of the world’s ten largest undeveloped copper projects in Argentina, where their proprietary

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