Australasian Equities

Fat Prophets
Australasian Equities

Speculative

high

Buy

Soft tonnes, hard cash Production came in soft for Sandfire in the March quarter. The company dug and processed less ore than expected at both its Spanish and Botswana operations, hampered by heavy rainfall, unplanned maintenance, and a grade transition at Motheo. On that measure alone, the tonnes were soft and the quarter disappointed. However, the financial result told a completely different story. Revenue hit a quarterly record of $408M. Underlying EBITDA hit a quarterly record of $220M, representing a

Praemium

Core

medium

Hold

Record $73.7 Billion in Funds Administered Praemium (ASX: PPS) fell despite notching up a record $73.7 billion in total funds administered at the end of March, which reflected a gain of +18% for the year. Spectrum, the flagship funds mgmt. product, delivered $502 million in quarterly net inflows, reaching $4 billion in total funds under management. The non-custodial portfolio administration service grew +28% to $41.5 billion. A recent technology acquisition (Technotia) is on track to deliver roughly $9 million in annual cost

Generation Development Group

Core

medium

Buy

Strong Numbers Buried Under a Sharp but Short-Sighted Sell-Off Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG) fell a steep -22.6%. The sell-off looked past a strong underlying result. Total funds managed across the group reached $34.8 billion, up +30% YoY, while the investment bonds business grew +35% to $5.33 billion with annual sales up 58%. A few factors appeared to weigh heavily on Wednesday. Concern about GDG’s high beta to market volatility, lingering trauma after the sharp fall in statutory net income reported earlier

Treasury Wine Estates

Core

medium

Hold

China Sales Surge as the Recovery Finds Its Feet Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) served up a well-received update, which calmed nerves after last year’s guidance withdrawal. Penfolds wine sales in China surged 40% during the Chinese New Year period and continued to grow through quarter-end. US sales reversed a 1H26 decline, growing 9.1% in the March quarter, with key brands posting solid gains. A new four-region operating structure is targeting $100 million in annual cost savings, $300 million in debt has

Genesis Minerals

Speculative

high

Buy

The Machine Keeps Running Genesis Minerals delivered a March quarter that should settle any lingering doubts about the company’s operating model. Production of 67,497oz at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,685/oz was solid rather than spectacular, but the financial outcome was excellent, a record A$252.8m underlying cash build in a single quarter, lifting the cash position to A$599.9m against zero bank debt. With the stock now trading more than 20% below its peak, even as the underlying story keeps strengthening

BHP

Core

medium

Buy

Beijing Blinked The risks that preoccupied some investors over the past two months or so – whether China’s purchasing freeze would erode realised iron ore prices, and whether Escondida’s grade decline would drag copper unit costs higher – have both resolved in BHP’s favour. The operational review for the nine months ended 31 March 2026 gives us confidence in our bullish view. The CMRG standoff is over, iron ore pricing held, copper guidance tightened upward, and the balance sheet received

Rio Tinto

Core

medium

Buy

Weathering the Storm: Guidance on Track Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) delivered a strong start to 2026, with iron ore production from the Western Australian operations +13% YoY to 78.8 million tonnes, the second-highest first-quarter result since 2018. The key driver going forward is copper, where Rio’s output rose +9% to 229kt as the Mongolian underground mine continues to ramp up toward a target of roughly 500kt per annum from 2028. Full-year production and cost guidance held firm despite two cyclones. First ore from the Simandou project in Guinea

QBE Insurance

Core

medium

Buy

Typhoons, Fires and Crew Shortages: A Perfect Storm? QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE) issued their latest marine insurance outlook for Asia, where it identified a convergence of risks reshaping the sector. However, for disciplined, specialist insurers like QBE, a harder market translates into stronger pricing power and deeper client relationships. The ability to walk away from poorly priced risk separates the specialists from the generalists in our view. QBE has been executing well, and the recent increase in bond yields supports returns from the insurer’s ‘float.’ In our

HUB24

Core

medium

Buy

9 Quarters at the Top HUB24 (ASX: HUB) has ranked first for new money flowing onto their investment platform for 9 consecutive quarters, lifting their market share to 9.7% and growing total funds managed 22% year-on-year to $151.7 billion as at the end of March. The share price decline after the quarterly update reflects a modest shortfall versus high market expectations following a record previous quarter, not any deterioration in the underlying business in our view — this dip is a valuation entry point into Australia’s dominant platform grower. In

Paladin Energy

Speculative

high

Buy

Targets Raised After Delivering 82% With a Quarter to Spare Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) has raised its FY uranium production forecast to 4.5/4.8 million pounds, (up from 4/4.4), after delivering roughly 82% of the original target with one quarter still to run. Production costs sit well below guidance, while capital spending has been cut nearly in half, improving cash generation without delaying the ramp to full capacity by year-end. A second major project in Canada adds longer-term growth prospects and would make it

National Australia Bank

Core

medium

Buy

Building a Bigger Buffer Before the Storm Arrives National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) opted to bolster financial buffers, adding $300 million in forward-looking provisions to cover risks from the Iran conflict and higher fuel costs. Interest rate volatility and a weaker NZD, alongside the increase, are estimated to have reduced the CET1 ratio at 31 March 2026 by approximately 20 bps. Still, the pro forma CET1 ratio is expected to be greater than 12%, a very strong buffer. Further, NAB intends

Orica

Core

medium

Hold

Production Back Online Orica (ASX: ORI) is managing two separate supply disruptions from a position of relative strength. Management does not expect a material financial impact under current conditions. While input cost concerns have weighed on Orica since the Iran War, the linkages to the mining industry are attractive, as many mines will require more blasting to extract resources over the coming years. In our last tech update on the 13th of March 2026, we noted that “Since our last technical update four months

National Storage REIT

Core

medium

Sell

The Fat Lady Has Sung: Buyout Clears the Final Hurdle National Storage REIT’s (ASX: NSR) life as a publicly listed stock is coming to an end. Shareholders voted overwhelmingly to approve the Brookfield and GIC buyout of National Storage REIT at $2.80 cash per share, with 97.9%. Court approval is scheduled for 21 April, the stock will be suspended from trading at the close of that day, and cash is due to be paid on 8 May 2026. With shares already trading at

Macquarie Group

Core

medium

Buy

Multiple Divisions Recovering at Once: a Rising Tide Story Macquarie (ASX: MQG) is emerging from the FY24–25 earnings trough with several divisions recovering at once. The commodities trading arm improved profit in the March quarter, backed by long-term natural gas supply agreements starting from 2028 and a gas network covering a slew of major US pipelines, well placed to capture growing energy demand from AI data centres. Asset management also posted substantially higher income year-on-year. Global deal activity rose more than 20% in early 2026. Strong

Fiducian

Core

medium

Buy

A Wealth Manager That Punches Above Its Weight Wealth platform Fiducian (ASX: FID) manages $14.5 billion in client funds as at 31 March 2026, up 4% year-on-year, supported by positive markets and steady inflows. The business generated $17.6 million operating cash flow over 9M26, comfortably covering $15.8 million in dividends. The company holds $33 million in cash with no debt. A $7.3 million regulatory penalty over a disclosure matter is now largely resolved, with all 160 affected clients reportedly receiving their money

Sandfire Resources

Speculative

high

Buy

From Deep in the Red to Sitting Pretty on Net Cash Sandfire (ASX: SFR) has swung from $243 million net debt a year ago to $76 million net cash at 31 March 2026, funded from strong operating cash flow. A modest March quarter production shortfall reflected heavy rainfall and maintenance at their Spanish operations, not a structural problem. Meanwhile, the Botswana copper mine hit record production rates, with higher-grade ore access due in the June quarter. Cost guidance is unchanged, and capital

Evolution Mining

Speculative

high

Buy

Strong cash flows, moving to net cash Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) shares popped +9% on Wednesday for good reason. Strong cash flows saw the balance sheet transition to net cash, achieved while funding growth capital across several key areas. Mungari produced a record 51koz and generated a record net mine cash flow; Red Lake set its own cash flow record; Ernest Henry was disrupted by weather but has returned to normal operations. Gold price realisation of $6,794/oz, with only a

St Barbara

Speculative

high

Buy

Restarting the Momentum Gold miner St Barbara (ASX: SBM) has reported solid numbers. Simberi March quarter production surged 49% quarter-on-quarter, despite above-average rainfall. The Touquoy restart in Nova Scotia received final regulatory approval on Monday (13 April), targeting 38,000 ounces over 13 months, with attractive unit economics. With $389 million from the Simberi-related transaction received on 2 April, the balance sheet is de-risked, and the valuation is a steep discount to the present value of expansion projects, even under modest assumptions. In our last tech

Qantas

Core

high

Hold

Fuel Bill Doubles But the Airline Keeps Its Head Above Water Qantas (ASX: QAN) faces a severe fuel cost shock, with 2H26 fuel expenses now guided at $3.1-3.3 billion after jet fuel prices more than doubled following the Iran conflict. The airline is trimming domestic flights and raising fares while redirecting aircraft to European routes where demand is strong. International ticket revenue is expected to grow 4-6% year-on-year, double prior guidance. A ceasefire could quickly reverse the fuel cost pressure, supporting a

WiseTech Global

Speculative

high

Buy

Cost Savings Delivered Ahead of Schedule, Ahead of the Pack WiseTech’s (ASX: WTC) logistics software platform, used by more than 22,000 freight and supply chain companies across 193 countries, grew revenue 12% in the first half. Total revenue surged 76% to US$672 million following a major acquisition, with operating earnings up 31% to US$252 million. Full-year revenue guidance of US$1.39-1.44 billion was reaffirmed at 40-41% profit margins. Acquisition cost savings were delivered ahead of schedule. The newly appointed CEO purchased A$1

Login

QUICKLINKS

TERMS AND COMPLIANCE

LINKS

Login

Latest fatCHAT issue: What could possibly go wrong?

Stock Disclosure