Australasian Equities

Fat Prophets
Australasian Equities

Speculative

high

Buy

Steady Sales and Better Prices Make for a Positive Quarter Whitehaven’s (ASX: WHC) March quarter delivered steady coal sales of 6.8Mt, tracking toward the upper end of FY guidance despite wet season disruptions in Queensland. Prices improved across both steelmaking and ‘energy’ coal, with the latter achieving 101% of the benchmark price as Middle East tensions tightened global supply. Debt refinancing of US$900m locks in roughly $50-55m in annual interest savings from May 2026, while net debt has fallen to $0.6

Vicinity Centres

Core

medium

Buy

Guidance Upgraded to the Top of the Range Vicinity’s (ASX: VCX) shopping centre portfolio is performing well, with occupancy at 99.6%, retailer sales up 5.1% and full-year earnings guidance upgraded to the top of its target range. The company has bought full ownership of a Brisbane city centre property for $212 million, backed by $27 billion of government infrastructure ahead of the 2032 Olympics. A new luxury retail precinct at Chatswood Chase in Sydney opens from the fourth quarter. Asset sales

Fortescue

Speculative

high

Hold

Record Nine-Month Shipments; Market Hopes for More? Fortescue (ASX: FMG) shipped a record 148.Mt of iron ore in the 9M26 period, up 4% year-on-year, with FY guidance of 195-205Mt unchanged. Production costs were very competitive at US$18.3/t, 4% lower than the previous quarter. The company is investing heavily in renewable energy across their Western Australian operations, with a further US$680 million approved for green power infrastructure in April. In our last tech update on the 11th of March, we noted that “Fortescue encountered resistance above $23,

Northern Star

Speculative

high

Buy

Plant Expansion on Track to Lower Costs From FY27 Northern Star (ASX: NST) sold 381,000 ounces of gold in the March quarter, generating $301 million in free cash flow after all costs. The company held $320 million in net cash at quarter-end even after paying a $347 million dividend. A major processing plant expansion in Kalgoorlie remains on track for early FY27, which is expected to lower the cost of producing each ounce and unlock higher returns from a stockpile of

Scentre Group

Core

medium

Hold

99.8% Occupancy: Nowhere Left to Fill, Nowhere Left to Fall Australian REIT Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) continues to have best-in-class positioning and a solid management team, which is drive for shopping centre business. The shopping centres recorded $7bn in retail sales for the March quarter, up 5%, with annualised sales reaching a record $30.3bn across 42 properties. Occupancy across the portfolio sits at 99.8%, with effectively no vacancies. Consumers are still spending, with customer visits rising 3.1% YoY. Full-year earnings guidance of

Mirvac

Core

medium

Hold

97% Occupancy Across the Commercial Portfolio Does the Heavy Lifting Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) slipped after cautioning on softening residential demand and broader Middle East headwinds. Still, Mirvac is tracking steadily toward full-year earnings guidance of 12.8-13.0 cents per share, with 1,896 home sales year-to-date, up 28% year-on-year, and forward sales contracts up 13% to roughly $1.8 billion. Land-lease community sales rose 42%. Commercial property occupancy sits at roughly 97%, with over 90,000 square metres leased during the year. In our last tech update

St Barbara

Speculative

high

Buy

Production Set to Grow Nearly Four-Fold by FY30 St Barbara (ASX: SBM) has approved three separate gold projects within three weeks, setting out a production growth path from roughly 48,000 ounces in FY27 to 191,000 ounces by FY30. A 13-year mine in Papua New Guinea, a restart of a stockpile operation in Nova Scotia targeting first output by end-2026, and a larger Canadian processing hub form the backbone of the plan. With $504 million in cash and all three projects funded

South32

Speculative

high

Hold

Alumina Hits a Record as the Weather Hits Manganese South32’s (ASX: S32, LSEG: S32) March quarter delivered a mixed but broadly solid result. Brazil’s alumina plant reached a record year-to-date output, and a net cash position was established despite US$158 million spent on a major zinc project in Arizona. However, weather disruptions and a cyclone led to a 6% cut to full-year manganese production guidance in Australia. Most other production guidance was maintained. We are watching the impact of rising freight, fuel and

Sandfire Resources

Speculative

high

Buy

Soft tonnes, hard cash Production came in soft for Sandfire in the March quarter. The company dug and processed less ore than expected at both its Spanish and Botswana operations, hampered by heavy rainfall, unplanned maintenance, and a grade transition at Motheo. On that measure alone, the tonnes were soft and the quarter disappointed. However, the financial result told a completely different story. Revenue hit a quarterly record of $408M. Underlying EBITDA hit a quarterly record of $220M, representing a

Praemium

Core

medium

Hold

Record $73.7 Billion in Funds Administered Praemium (ASX: PPS) fell despite notching up a record $73.7 billion in total funds administered at the end of March, which reflected a gain of +18% for the year. Spectrum, the flagship funds mgmt. product, delivered $502 million in quarterly net inflows, reaching $4 billion in total funds under management. The non-custodial portfolio administration service grew +28% to $41.5 billion. A recent technology acquisition (Technotia) is on track to deliver roughly $9 million in annual cost

Generation Development Group

Core

medium

Buy

Strong Numbers Buried Under a Sharp but Short-Sighted Sell-Off Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG) fell a steep -22.6%. The sell-off looked past a strong underlying result. Total funds managed across the group reached $34.8 billion, up +30% YoY, while the investment bonds business grew +35% to $5.33 billion with annual sales up 58%. A few factors appeared to weigh heavily on Wednesday. Concern about GDG’s high beta to market volatility, lingering trauma after the sharp fall in statutory net income reported earlier

Treasury Wine Estates

Core

medium

Hold

China Sales Surge as the Recovery Finds Its Feet Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) served up a well-received update, which calmed nerves after last year’s guidance withdrawal. Penfolds wine sales in China surged 40% during the Chinese New Year period and continued to grow through quarter-end. US sales reversed a 1H26 decline, growing 9.1% in the March quarter, with key brands posting solid gains. A new four-region operating structure is targeting $100 million in annual cost savings, $300 million in debt has

Genesis Minerals

Speculative

high

Buy

The Machine Keeps Running Genesis Minerals delivered a March quarter that should settle any lingering doubts about the company’s operating model. Production of 67,497oz at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,685/oz was solid rather than spectacular, but the financial outcome was excellent, a record A$252.8m underlying cash build in a single quarter, lifting the cash position to A$599.9m against zero bank debt. With the stock now trading more than 20% below its peak, even as the underlying story keeps strengthening

BHP

Core

medium

Buy

Beijing Blinked The risks that preoccupied some investors over the past two months or so – whether China’s purchasing freeze would erode realised iron ore prices, and whether Escondida’s grade decline would drag copper unit costs higher – have both resolved in BHP’s favour. The operational review for the nine months ended 31 March 2026 gives us confidence in our bullish view. The CMRG standoff is over, iron ore pricing held, copper guidance tightened upward, and the balance sheet received

Rio Tinto

Core

medium

Buy

Weathering the Storm: Guidance on Track Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) delivered a strong start to 2026, with iron ore production from the Western Australian operations +13% YoY to 78.8 million tonnes, the second-highest first-quarter result since 2018. The key driver going forward is copper, where Rio’s output rose +9% to 229kt as the Mongolian underground mine continues to ramp up toward a target of roughly 500kt per annum from 2028. Full-year production and cost guidance held firm despite two cyclones. First ore from the Simandou project in Guinea

QBE Insurance

Core

medium

Buy

Typhoons, Fires and Crew Shortages: A Perfect Storm? QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE) issued their latest marine insurance outlook for Asia, where it identified a convergence of risks reshaping the sector. However, for disciplined, specialist insurers like QBE, a harder market translates into stronger pricing power and deeper client relationships. The ability to walk away from poorly priced risk separates the specialists from the generalists in our view. QBE has been executing well, and the recent increase in bond yields supports returns from the insurer’s ‘float.’ In our

HUB24

Core

medium

Buy

9 Quarters at the Top HUB24 (ASX: HUB) has ranked first for new money flowing onto their investment platform for 9 consecutive quarters, lifting their market share to 9.7% and growing total funds managed 22% year-on-year to $151.7 billion as at the end of March. The share price decline after the quarterly update reflects a modest shortfall versus high market expectations following a record previous quarter, not any deterioration in the underlying business in our view — this dip is a valuation entry point into Australia’s dominant platform grower. In

Paladin Energy

Speculative

high

Buy

Targets Raised After Delivering 82% With a Quarter to Spare Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) has raised its FY uranium production forecast to 4.5/4.8 million pounds, (up from 4/4.4), after delivering roughly 82% of the original target with one quarter still to run. Production costs sit well below guidance, while capital spending has been cut nearly in half, improving cash generation without delaying the ramp to full capacity by year-end. A second major project in Canada adds longer-term growth prospects and would make it

National Australia Bank

Core

medium

Buy

Building a Bigger Buffer Before the Storm Arrives National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) opted to bolster financial buffers, adding $300 million in forward-looking provisions to cover risks from the Iran conflict and higher fuel costs. Interest rate volatility and a weaker NZD, alongside the increase, are estimated to have reduced the CET1 ratio at 31 March 2026 by approximately 20 bps. Still, the pro forma CET1 ratio is expected to be greater than 12%, a very strong buffer. Further, NAB intends

Orica

Core

medium

Hold

Production Back Online Orica (ASX: ORI) is managing two separate supply disruptions from a position of relative strength. Management does not expect a material financial impact under current conditions. While input cost concerns have weighed on Orica since the Iran War, the linkages to the mining industry are attractive, as many mines will require more blasting to extract resources over the coming years. In our last tech update on the 13th of March 2026, we noted that “Since our last technical update four months

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