Australasian Equities

Fat Prophets
Australasian Equities

Core

medium

Buy

No More Taco Collins Foods (ASX: CKF) will hand back all 27 Australian Taco Bell restaurants to Yum Brands, and is nearing the exit of a venture that failed to generate acceptable returns in Australia. The business is now entirely focused on KFC in Australia and in Europe. Germany remains a key focus growth market, where the network has grown to around 25 restaurants with a target of up to 90. Consumer spending patterns are working in Collins’ favour, as more households trade down to

Newmont

Speculative

high

Hold

A Machine Running at Full Throttle Newmont delivered the most profitable quarter in its 105-year history in Q1. The stock has corrected almost 20% from the peak seen in January, as gold prices have retreated from that surge seen earlier in the year. At the time of writing, gold prices were trading at about $4,620/z, which is 5.7% lower than the average realised price of $4,900/oz enjoyed in Q1. We see scope for a period of consolidation in the gold

Capstone Copper

Speculative

high

Buy

Six Consecutive Quarters of Record Profit Capstone Copper (TSX: CS; ASX: CSC) delivered its strongest quarter on record, with EBITDA surging 83% year-on-year to US$329 million. That was achieved despite a 35-day worker strike at their Chilean mine, cutting roughly 5,000 tonnes of output. Copper sold at above the market average price of US$5.92 per pound. Full-year production guidance was unchanged, meaning the remaining three quarters should deliver materially higher volumes as the Chilean operation returns to normal. A second Chilean

Stockland Corporation

Core

medium

Hold

Strong Sales Setting Up 2H26 Stockland’s (ASX: SGP) March quarter delivered strong residential sales across the board. New housing lot sales rose 43% year-on-year to 2,164, with 6,721 contracts in hand. Their retirement and land lease communities recorded a quarterly sales record of 317 homes, up 162% year-on-year. Industrial and warehouse property re-leasing spreads came in at 31.1% with 96.1% occupancy. Full-year earnings guidance of 36.0-37.0 cents per share was reaffirmed, with settlements heavily weighted toward the 2H26. A 350MW data centre development in Victoria adds

Amcor

Core

medium

Hold

Incremental Progress Packaging giant Amcor (ASX: AMC) is making some tweaks, spending on a healthcare packaging facility in Malaysia, adding printing capacity in the Netherlands, and selling a smaller operation in Morocco to simplify the business. The 2025 acquisition of Berry Global catapulted the company into the position of the world’s largest consumer packaging group. Management has guided for solid FY earnings growth and cash flows, underpinned by synergies from the Berry integration – tracking ahead of schedule. In our last tech

Suncorp

Core

medium

Buy

Building a Bigger Buffer Before the Storm Suncorp (ASX: SUN) has put in place a new five-year protection plan that will shield the group from large weather-related losses, covering up to $800 million a year and $2.4 billion in total from FY27. Management says this should cap damage costs in about 90% of scenarios, free up around $100 million in capital and make profits less volatile, without changing their profit outlook, which remains at the upper end of the target range.

Woodside Energy

Core

medium

Hold

Solid Quarter, but the Heavy Lifting Is Still Ahead Woodside’s (ASX: WDS) March quarter ‘held the line’ as revenue rose 7% to US$3.26 billion on the back of higher oil and gas prices, which offset an 8% drop in production caused by bad weather. Full-year guidance was unchanged. Meanwhile, three major growth projects remain on schedule and on budget, with Scarborough 96% complete and targeting first exports in late 2026. The challenge is that all three projects are still absorbing heavy

Santos

Speculative

high

Buy

Full-Year Guidance Held as the Growth Engines Start Up Santos (ASX: STO) is on the verge of a significant production step-up, with two major projects moving from construction into full operation at the same time. Its Alaskan oil project is mechanically complete with first oil sales expected within weeks, targeting full output by early in the third quarter. Its offshore gas project has begun delivering its first cargoes. Full-year production guidance was unchanged, and the business generated US$383 million in free

Whitehaven Coal

Speculative

high

Buy

Steady Sales and Better Prices Make for a Positive Quarter Whitehaven’s (ASX: WHC) March quarter delivered steady coal sales of 6.8Mt, tracking toward the upper end of FY guidance despite wet season disruptions in Queensland. Prices improved across both steelmaking and ‘energy’ coal, with the latter achieving 101% of the benchmark price as Middle East tensions tightened global supply. Debt refinancing of US$900m locks in roughly $50-55m in annual interest savings from May 2026, while net debt has fallen to $0.6

Vicinity Centres

Core

medium

Buy

Guidance Upgraded to the Top of the Range Vicinity’s (ASX: VCX) shopping centre portfolio is performing well, with occupancy at 99.6%, retailer sales up 5.1% and full-year earnings guidance upgraded to the top of its target range. The company has bought full ownership of a Brisbane city centre property for $212 million, backed by $27 billion of government infrastructure ahead of the 2032 Olympics. A new luxury retail precinct at Chatswood Chase in Sydney opens from the fourth quarter. Asset sales

Fortescue

Speculative

high

Hold

Record Nine-Month Shipments; Market Hopes for More? Fortescue (ASX: FMG) shipped a record 148.Mt of iron ore in the 9M26 period, up 4% year-on-year, with FY guidance of 195-205Mt unchanged. Production costs were very competitive at US$18.3/t, 4% lower than the previous quarter. The company is investing heavily in renewable energy across their Western Australian operations, with a further US$680 million approved for green power infrastructure in April. In our last tech update on the 11th of March, we noted that “Fortescue encountered resistance above $23,

Northern Star

Speculative

high

Buy

Plant Expansion on Track to Lower Costs From FY27 Northern Star (ASX: NST) sold 381,000 ounces of gold in the March quarter, generating $301 million in free cash flow after all costs. The company held $320 million in net cash at quarter-end even after paying a $347 million dividend. A major processing plant expansion in Kalgoorlie remains on track for early FY27, which is expected to lower the cost of producing each ounce and unlock higher returns from a stockpile of

Scentre Group

Core

medium

Hold

99.8% Occupancy: Nowhere Left to Fill, Nowhere Left to Fall Australian REIT Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) continues to have best-in-class positioning and a solid management team, which is drive for shopping centre business. The shopping centres recorded $7bn in retail sales for the March quarter, up 5%, with annualised sales reaching a record $30.3bn across 42 properties. Occupancy across the portfolio sits at 99.8%, with effectively no vacancies. Consumers are still spending, with customer visits rising 3.1% YoY. Full-year earnings guidance of

Mirvac

Core

medium

Hold

97% Occupancy Across the Commercial Portfolio Does the Heavy Lifting Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) slipped after cautioning on softening residential demand and broader Middle East headwinds. Still, Mirvac is tracking steadily toward full-year earnings guidance of 12.8-13.0 cents per share, with 1,896 home sales year-to-date, up 28% year-on-year, and forward sales contracts up 13% to roughly $1.8 billion. Land-lease community sales rose 42%. Commercial property occupancy sits at roughly 97%, with over 90,000 square metres leased during the year. In our last tech update

St Barbara

Speculative

high

Buy

Production Set to Grow Nearly Four-Fold by FY30 St Barbara (ASX: SBM) has approved three separate gold projects within three weeks, setting out a production growth path from roughly 48,000 ounces in FY27 to 191,000 ounces by FY30. A 13-year mine in Papua New Guinea, a restart of a stockpile operation in Nova Scotia targeting first output by end-2026, and a larger Canadian processing hub form the backbone of the plan. With $504 million in cash and all three projects funded

South32

Speculative

high

Hold

Alumina Hits a Record as the Weather Hits Manganese South32’s (ASX: S32, LSEG: S32) March quarter delivered a mixed but broadly solid result. Brazil’s alumina plant reached a record year-to-date output, and a net cash position was established despite US$158 million spent on a major zinc project in Arizona. However, weather disruptions and a cyclone led to a 6% cut to full-year manganese production guidance in Australia. Most other production guidance was maintained. We are watching the impact of rising freight, fuel and

Sandfire Resources

Speculative

high

Buy

Soft tonnes, hard cash Production came in soft for Sandfire in the March quarter. The company dug and processed less ore than expected at both its Spanish and Botswana operations, hampered by heavy rainfall, unplanned maintenance, and a grade transition at Motheo. On that measure alone, the tonnes were soft and the quarter disappointed. However, the financial result told a completely different story. Revenue hit a quarterly record of $408M. Underlying EBITDA hit a quarterly record of $220M, representing a

Praemium

Core

medium

Hold

Record $73.7 Billion in Funds Administered Praemium (ASX: PPS) fell despite notching up a record $73.7 billion in total funds administered at the end of March, which reflected a gain of +18% for the year. Spectrum, the flagship funds mgmt. product, delivered $502 million in quarterly net inflows, reaching $4 billion in total funds under management. The non-custodial portfolio administration service grew +28% to $41.5 billion. A recent technology acquisition (Technotia) is on track to deliver roughly $9 million in annual cost

Generation Development Group

Core

medium

Buy

Strong Numbers Buried Under a Sharp but Short-Sighted Sell-Off Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG) fell a steep -22.6%. The sell-off looked past a strong underlying result. Total funds managed across the group reached $34.8 billion, up +30% YoY, while the investment bonds business grew +35% to $5.33 billion with annual sales up 58%. A few factors appeared to weigh heavily on Wednesday. Concern about GDG’s high beta to market volatility, lingering trauma after the sharp fall in statutory net income reported earlier

Treasury Wine Estates

Core

medium

Hold

China Sales Surge as the Recovery Finds Its Feet Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) served up a well-received update, which calmed nerves after last year’s guidance withdrawal. Penfolds wine sales in China surged 40% during the Chinese New Year period and continued to grow through quarter-end. US sales reversed a 1H26 decline, growing 9.1% in the March quarter, with key brands posting solid gains. A new four-region operating structure is targeting $100 million in annual cost savings, $300 million in debt has

Login

QUICKLINKS

TERMS AND COMPLIANCE

LINKS

Login

Latest fatCHAT issue: The Fog of War

Stock Disclosure