Australasian Equities - Fat Prophets

Fat Prophets
Australasian Equities

Speculative

high

Buy

Full Steam Ahead in Namibia Paladin Energy’s (ASX: PDN) Namibian mine has now moved past the startup phase into full production. The mine finished the year producing near the top of its target range while keeping costs low, and shares jumped on the news. Next year’s output is expected to grow further, with pricing tied to contracts that could rise well above current market rates. The company holds a healthy cash buffer, and a separate project in Canada is progressing through

Generation Development Group

Core

medium

Buy

Three Businesses, One Winning Streak Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG) reported a strong FY26 across its three main businesses, with total client money under management jumping 36% to $46.4 billion. The group’s life insurance-style savings product brought in a record $442 million in new money over the quarter, up 39%, while the portfolio management arm grew 37% to $40.5 billion. Meanwhile, a new partnership widens distribution of their savings product, and the research arm continues to grow its list of rated investment

Stockland Corporation

Core

medium

Hold

Sharing the Load, Keeping the Reins Australian REIT Stockland (ASX: SGP) despite bringing in outside investors to help fund warehouse and shopping centre projects, freeing up capital while keeping control of day-to-day management. The recently announced deal will add $438 million worth of warehouse sites to a partnership with UK-based investor M&G, taking that joint venture to $900 million. A majority stake in three supermarket-anchored shopping centres was sold to Morgan Stanley. Stockland keeps a minority share in both portfolios, and will

Amcor

Core

medium

Hold

All Eggs in the Growth Basket Amcor (ASX: AMC) is expanding a factory in China, adding new leadership to their North American arm, and working with Mondelez to use more recycled plastic in packaging for products like Cadbury Mini Eggs. These are sensible long-term moves but will take time, with the China factory not finishing until 2027 and the North American plans still bedding in new sites and equipment. Returns from both projects will depend on demand and execution over the next year or two. With

JPMorgan Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity Active ETF

Speculative

high

Traffic light

Waiting for the Right Time The JPMorgan Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity Active ETF (ASX: JEME) invests in emerging market companies, with a heavy focus on the businesses making chips that power artificial intelligence. One of the ETF’s biggest holdings, chipmaker TSMC, recently posted a huge jump in profit and raised the outlook for the rest of the year. Combined with similar bets on Samsung and SK Hynix, this focus has helped the ETF fund outperform the broader emerging markets index over

HUB24

Core

medium

Buy

Advisers Keep Coming Back for More HUB24 (ASX: HUB) notched up a record year with $18.9 billion, with a 20% surge in new money added on the platform taking FUM to $164.3 billion. This growth came from everyday financial advisers gradually moving more new clients onto the platform, rather than large one-time transfers, as happened in prior periods. HUB24 ranked first for new money attracted for the tenth quarter running and earned the highest satisfaction score from advisers in a major industry survey. New retirement

APA Group

Core

medium

Buy

Plugging the Gap Before It Opens Pipeline infrastructure operator APA Group (ASX: APA) but received approval to spend $213 million expanding a gas pipeline in Victoria, aimed at avoiding potential winter gas shortages expected from 2029 onwards. Two new pumping stations will push more gas through the existing pipeline at higher pressure, a solution the company says is far cheaper than laying a second parallel pipe alongside it. The project is being funded from the company’s existing finances, with an extra $31 million kept

South32

Speculative

high

Hold

Digging In While Shedding Weight South32 (ASX: S32) had a strong year, digging up more copper, zinc and manganese than expected across its mines. The company has agreed to sell off its aluminium business to Alcoa for up to US$5.6 billion, a deal still awaiting approval that would leave South32 focused mainly on metals used in electronics and batteries. Meanwhile, a major zinc and silver project in the US cleared a key approval hurdle, though construction won’t begin until next year

Rio Tinto

Core

medium

Buy

Striking It Rich Across the Board Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) had its strongest first half for iron ore output in years, digging up 169.9 million tonnes, up 5%, with strong sales momentum in the most recent quarter. The company also cut its cost outlook for copper, thanks to a growing mine in Mongolia and better productivity across its operations. A major new iron ore project in Guinea is ramping up towards full capacity after achieving its first shipments, while a land

BHP

Core

medium

Buy

The cut that makes the case BHP shares fell last Thursday: the market took one look at FY27 copper guidance and sold. We’d do the opposite. This is a company with one of the world’s largest copper portfolios, built around Escondida – the largest producing copper mine on the planet – and copper is precisely where our conviction sits. BHP closed FY26 with copper production of 1,952.8kt (-3% YoY) and a record 264.7Mt (+1%) of iron ore, realising US$5.74/lb on copper,

Evolution Mining

Speculative

high

Hold

Strong Year, Muted Reaction Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) delivered a strong FY26, digging up 715,000 ounces of gold and 66,000 tonnes of copper while generating record cash flow and finishing the year with plenty of cash in the bank and low debt. Looking ahead, the company plans to ramp up CAPEX on developing its mine footprint and exploring for new deposits, which will raise costs over the coming year. Investors seem to have become wary of higher capex, but the real

St Barbara

Speculative

high

Buy

Digging In on Two Fronts St Barbara (ASX: SBM) has two gold projects moving forward at the same time in Nova Scotia, Canada. The company has approval to restart its Touquoy mine, expecting to produce about 38,000 ozs of gold pa, which will generate solid cash flow to help fund the next project. Approvals are also in place for SBM to expand to a much larger processing hub, which would combine three separate mine sites into one operation producing over 100,000 ounces

Genesis Minerals

Speculative

high

Hold

The Offer didn’t move Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) has won Vault Minerals without paying another cent for it. Regis Resources declined to lob another, announcing the decision on 13 July, saying the terms required to do so did not meet its value and return thresholds, and it will collect a break fee of approximately A$50.7 million for its trouble – real money, but still a relative rounding error in this monster deal, which will form Australia’s third-largest gold producer. The

Elders

Core

medium

Hold

Bracing for a Dry Spell Forecasters are warning that a strong El Niño could bring one of the driest periods in decades to Australian farming regions, and this poses a challenge for Elders (ASX: ELD) whose business relies heavily on farmer spending and rainfall. Elders have already sold off a large cattle feedlot to cut debt, reducing one area of risk before drier conditions set in. However, the core businesses around selling farm supplies, livestock trading and rural property sales, all still rise

Treasury Wine Estates

Core

medium

Hold

Trimming the Fat Treasury Wines Estates (ASX: TWE) is cutting around 40 wine labels from the current lineup, shrinking the portfolio from over 70 brands to fewer than 30 over the next five years. The move aims to save A$100 million a year, though there are one-off costs which are expected to be around A$220-260 million, and debt levels are expected to peak this year. Meanwhile, the company has put a large vineyard in South Australia up for sale, part of a broader move away from struggling growing regions.

Austal

Core

medium

Hold

Building Slowly, But Building Smart Austal (ASX: ASB) has partnered with a design firm, BMT, to access extra engineering support when workloads peak. In Vietnam, the shipyard delivered a hybrid vessel combining steel and lightweight materials, showing that the operation can now build more complex ships beyond usual lightweight designs. Meanwhile, a long-term Australian defence agreement covering dozens of vessels remains in place, though contracts still need to be finalised. Overall, these are useful building blocks, but proof of delivery is

Sandfire Resources

Speculative

high

Buy

The Copper Story Gets a Longer ‘Chapter’ Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR) has significantly boosted the outlook for the Black Butte copper project in Montana, with a new study lifting the amount of copper the project can economically dig up by almost +50%. Sandfire’s Montana copper mine is now expected to have a working life of 12 years, up from 8 years prior, made possible by connecting a second underground deposit to the same processing plant, keeping costs low. The project is forecast to generate solid returns, and most of

New Hope Corp

Speculative

high

Hold

Digging In, Not Up New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) remains strongly profitable thanks to firm prices and reliable demand, particularly from India. The company benefits from being based mainly in New South Wales, avoiding Queensland’s steep state charges on premium-priced coal. Meanwhile, global demand for this metallurgical coal (the type used in steel) is expected to hold steady over the next few years. In our last tech update on the 19th of May, we noted that “New Hope made a three-year high above $6

WiseTech Global

Speculative

high

Hold

Founder Steps Back but Not Away WiseTech (ASX: WTC) has appointed a new independent chair, sparking rebound in the share price, though shares are still down ~34% year-to-date. Regulators are investigating founder Richard White’s sale of shares worth around A$229 million during a period when he should not have been trading, and the federal police raided the company’s Sydney office last October. White still sits on the board in a senior role, so questions over oversight remain unresolved. A record number

Santos

Speculative

high

Buy

Locking In a Decade of Steady Gas Supply Santos (ASX: STO) has signed a 10-year deal to supply gas to the South Australian government, locking in steady income and helping fund upgrades at the Cooper Basin operations aimed at cutting costs. Meanwhile, the Barossa gas project is now running at 75% of planned output. Santos is prioritising proven, lower-risk projects over more expensive, uncertain ones, keeping spending disciplined. The ongoing conflict adds volatility to the outlook, but Santos is managing the aspects it can, well. In our

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