Australasian Equities

Fat Prophets
Australasian Equities

Speculative

high

Hold

21 Million Reasons Genesis Minerals has just told the market it holds 18.9 million ounces of gold resources at 2.1g/t and 4.4 million ounces in reserves at 1.9g/t – and those figures, on a pro forma basis following the pending Magnetic Resources acquisition, rise to 21.3Moz and 5.4Moz respectively. The scale of the inventory being assembled is remarkable, and the May corporate presentation makes the path to monetising it more tangible. While the underlying traction at the miner is impressive,

HUB24

Core

medium

Buy

Guaranteed Income for Life Available Through HUB24 HUB24 (ASX: HUB) launched a new retirement income product in partnership with life insurer TAL. The product allows retirees to receive a guaranteed income for the rest of their lives, regardless of how long they live or whether their original savings run out. Total funds administered reached $151.7 billion, up 22% year-on-year. The company has ranked first among Australia’s financial platforms for net inflows over eight consecutive quarters. First-half underlying profit rose 35%, and net

Xero

Core

medium

Buy

The Integration Tax Xero delivered a full-year revenue beat in FY26, with the core platform performing ahead of our assumptions while Melio integration costs drove reported profit lower. Operating revenue reached NZ$2,753m, up +31% (+28% in constant currency, +21% organically excluding Melio). The result validates the fundamental thesis, but it did impact near-term margin visibility, leading to a negative market reaction on the day of release. The organic business is materially stronger than the reported headline suggests. Excluding Melio, revenue grew +21%

Fiducian

Core

medium

Buy

Growing the Adviser Network While the Rest of the Industry Shrinks Fiducian (ASX: FID) is quietly expanding its adviser network at a time when the broader industry saw some shrinkage. Fiducian now has a team of 83 qualified advisers across a mix of company-employed staff and independently run franchise offices. The firm added three new franchise locations after completing several smaller acquisitions this financial year. The company is actively looking for further client-base acquisitions to bolt onto their centralised operating platform. In our

Telstra

Core

medium

Buy

Research Today, Competitive Advantage Tomorrow Telstra (ASX: TLS) shares have been a relatively safe haven amid the recent broader market volatility and pullback. The blend of strong cash flows and a growing dividend has appealed, with pricing power across the dominant mobile business having improved in a more rational local market in recent years. The telco has passed peak spending, and AI-related initiatives are likely to reduce the cost base further in the coming years, improving cash flow generation. Both Telstra and Vodafone

Macquarie Group

Core

medium

Buy

57 Years of Unbroken Profitability Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG) reported FY26 net profit of $4.85 billion, up 30%, with all four business divisions contributing to growth. Momentum improved in the second half, with 2H26 alone producing a record $3.19 billion profit. Their commodity trading and energy markets division led the way, surging 49% as Middle East tensions drove volatile energy prices and strong client demand for risk management. The asset management division rose 27%, boosted by performance fees on infrastructure investments. The

James Hardie Industries

Core

medium

Buy

The Trough Year James Hardie shares have had a tough past year, falling ~30% against a flattish ASX200. Elevated mortgage rates in the US have hampered the company’s largest market, and many institutional investors have never fully made their peace with the scale of the AZEK acquisition. The question heading into this week’s results was not just whether the quarterly results were any good, but what the outlook would be and whether management could begin rebuilding credibility with the broader market.

Rio Tinto

Core

medium

Buy

Recycling Capital Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) is reshaping its portfolio in two directions simultaneously. In Western Australia, Rio is exploring the sale of a minority stake in the power network that supplies their iron ore operations, freeing up capital while keeping full operational control. A new 30-year solar energy agreement will also cut diesel costs at those operations. Second, they are evaluating a larger investment in Los Azules, one of the world’s ten largest undeveloped copper projects in Argentina, where their proprietary

WiseTech Global

Speculative

high

Buy

A Platform Destined to Be the Operating System for Global Trade WiseTech (ASX: WTC) is another quality growth franchise that we view as oversold. At the Macquarie Australia Conference, the company outlined an expanding ambition to position itself as essential digital infrastructure across logistics, global trade, trade finance and customs compliance, which are markets collectively worth over US$45 trillion. Full-year revenue guidance of US$1.39 to US$1.44 billion was reaffirmed. Artificial intelligence now generates around half of WiseTech’s internal software code, with usage

GrainCorp

Speculative

high

Hold

Global Grain Oversupply Hits Earnings Hard GrainCorp (ASX: GNC) reported a sharp fall in 1H26 earnings as a global oversupply of grain compressed margins to multi-year lows. Underlying operating profit halved to $136 million, and net profit collapsed 92% to $5 million. Farmers held grain on their properties rather than selling, reducing the volumes flowing through GrainCorp’s storage and export facilities. Still, the interim dividend of 14 cents per share was maintained, and FY earnings guidance was reaffirmed. The recovery depends

Santos

Speculative

high

Buy

First Oil Flows From Alaska’s Largest New Development Santos (ASX: STO) has achieved first oil from the Pikka project on Alaska’s North Slope, the largest new oil development in the state in decades. The project is ramping toward an initial rate of 20,000 barrels per day before targeting a plateau of 80,000 barrels per day in the 3Q26, representing around 19% of Alaska’s current output. First revenue is expected within two to three months. Two nearby discoveries provide a clear pipeline of future growth. Alaska’s

Judo Capital

Speculative

high

Hold

Loan Book Grows to $13.8 Billion as Customer Retention Jumps Judo Capital (ASX: JDO), the SME lender, reported continued loan book growth to $13.8 billion as at March, up $400 million over the quarter. The margin earned on loans widened to 3.15%, and customer retention was positive. Capital levels remain healthy without any need for fresh equity. Full-year profit guidance of $180 to $190 million was reaffirmed, though management guided toward the lower end. In our last tech update on the 12th of January, we noted

New Hope Corp

Speculative

high

Hold

Production Up, Costs Down New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) delivered a strong 3Q26 with coal sales rising 10.4% to 3.2 million tonnes and operating profit up 22% to $130 million. Production costs at their flagship NSW mine fell 12.4% as higher output spread fixed costs across more tonnes. Coal prices rose 16.5% over the quarter, supported by Asian utilities turning back to coal amid concerns over Middle East gas supply. The company also sits on a cash hoard of $571.6 million and

Elders

Core

medium

Hold

Tech and Fuel Caused the Spook Elders (ASX: ELD) tumbled -22.9% despite a solid 1H26 with operating profit up 33% to $76.6 million and cash flow more than doubling to $67.0 million. Investors focused on a 4% decline in earnings per share and rising technology and fuel costs. The interim dividend was maintained at 18 cents but lifted to be fully franked. Proceeds from the pending sale of a cattle feedlot are expected to reduce debt in the second half. In our last

Paladin Energy

Speculative

high

Buy

Production Up and Full-Year Guidance Raised Paladin Energy’s (ASX: PDN) Namibian uranium mine produced 1.29 million pounds in the March quarter, up 5% on the prior quarter, at a production cost well below guidance. The improved performance prompted a full-year production upgrade and a return to profitability after a year of losses. The company holds US$219.5 million in cash and investments with minimal debt. Meanwhile, environmental approval for their high-grade Saskatchewan development project (Patterson Lake South) has been secured, adding a future growth option. A timing gap between revenue earned and

The Lottery Corporation

Speculative

high

Buy

Lottery Licence Locked In Until 2068 The Lottery Corporation (ASX: TLC) has secured a 40-year extension of its exclusive licence to operate public lotteries in Victoria, locking in rights until 2068 for $1.145 billion. Victoria is the company’s second-largest state by lottery sales. The deal was funded entirely through debt, with LTC’s investment-grade credit rating retained. The next major licence renewal in NSW is not until 2050, which underpins earnings. In our last tech update on the 5th of March, we noted that

APA Group

Core

medium

Buy

Pipeline Capacity to Grow 30% as Southern Gas Shortfalls Loom APA Group (ASX: APA) has committed $480 million to expand the capacity of their east coast pipeline system. The funds will be spent on increasing the volume of gas by 30% flowing southward from Queensland. The investment is backed by long-term take-or-pay contracts. The interim distribution of 27.5c was lifted 1.9% year-on-year, continuing a long track record of growing dividends. In our last tech update on the 27th of March, we noted that “APA has

CSL

Core

medium

Hold

Interim CEO Review Delivers a Hard but Necessary Reckoning CSL (ASX: CSL) plunged -16% after cutting full-year profit forecasts by around 9%-13% to approximately US$3.1 billion following a 90-day review by the interim CEO. The company also flagged around a US$5 billion in non-cash write-downs, largely tied to the 2022 acquisition of kidney disease specialist Vifor, which has not performed as originally expected. The write-downs do not affect cash flow or the dividend. Core blood plasma and vaccine operations remain firmly profitable. The shares have fallen almost

Amcor

Core

medium

Hold

Accretive Growth: Acquisition Pays Off Amcor, (ASX: AMC) delivered a sharp rise in sales and profit following their acquisition of US rival Berry, with adjusted operating profit up 72% for the quarter. Cost savings from combining the two businesses are tracking ahead of schedule, now targeting US$270 million in annual savings. Full-year earnings per share guidance of US$3.98 to US$4.03 was maintained. However, free cash flow guidance was trimmed as the company holds more inventory to manage supply chain disruptions. Net debt remains elevated at

QBE Insurance

Core

medium

Buy

A Solid Start QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE) opened 2026 with total premiums written up 11% to US$9.2 billion, supported by growth in North American crop insurance and selected international lines. Natural disaster claims for the first four months came in at around US$300 million, well below the 1H26 budget of US$517 million. Investment income reached approximately US$500 million, benefiting from higher interest rates on its bond portfolio. Full-year profitability guidance was reaffirmed. The company has also cut their exposure to large disaster losses by around 40% over two

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