Australasian Equities

Fat Prophets
Australasian Equities

Core

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Changing of the Guard A few developments since our last note on BHP have landed. The Wheaton silver stream has closed, Resolution Copper’s federal land exchange is complete, and Brandon Craig is confirmed as incoming CEO from 1 July. Overall, they incrementally add to the investment case, and BHP remains at a material discount to its highs. Iron ore is holding ground nicely well above $100/t. Copper’s structural tailwinds are intact, and the red metal has become the key driver

Orica

Core

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Cost-Cutting Programme Over 3 Years Orica (ASX: ORI) is the world’s largest commercial explosives provider, operating in an effective duopoly in key markets, now layering a structural $100 million-plus annual cost-cutting programme on top of solid earnings. 1H26 underlying profit is guiding slightly above the prior period’s $488.1 million despite Australian dollar headwinds. Digital Solutions profit is up roughly 20% and Specialty Mining Chemicals up roughly 15% year-on-year, accelerating the shift toward higher-margin, recurring technology revenues. Near-term restructuring charges and a US

Paladin Energy

Core

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Supply Gap has Opened? Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) rose after the CEO confirmed uranium production capacity at the key Langer Heinrich mine (~8m pounds p.a.) and that “a supply gap had opened” in the uranium market. Unit costs per pound of uranium produced at Langer have fallen over the past year, leading to a 45%-plus cash margin as higher-grade primary ore replaces lower-yielding stockpiles. The company now has a fortress balance sheet. Canadian uranium projects, including Patterson Lake South (PLS) and Michelin, provide optionality

Whitehaven Coal

Speculative

high

Iran Conflict Energy Shock Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) is a leveraged play on the Iran conflict energy shock. Natural gas disruptions are redirecting Asian and European power utilities back to high-energy thermal coal, directly benefiting Whitehaven’s NSW and Queensland operations with their short shipping times and premium quality. Group production rose roughly 20% year-on-year with costs at the low end of guidance, meaning coal prices above $130-140 per tonne flow almost entirely to profit. Policy-driven restrictions on new mines tighten the

Mirvac

Core

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Repositioning! Mirvac (ASX: MGR) is successfully repositioning from an office-heavy portfolio to a residential and warehouse platform. Management recently reaffirmed upbeat operating earnings guidance and a c5.5% prospective dividend yield. Major new projects, including Blackwattle Bay (the old Sydney fish market) and Green Square, extend the development pipeline for a decade. Capital-efficient partnerships with institutional investors enable growth without having to raise more equity, which is dilutionary. Residential sales, meanwhile, have remained resilient in structurally undersupplied markets such as Sydney and Melbourne. In

Fortescue

Speculative

high

Sector-Leading Production + Electrification = PROFIT? Fortescue (ASX: FMG) delivered record first-half shipments of 100.2 million tonnes, 53% operating profit margin, and net profit up 23% to $1.9 billion, all at a sector-leading production cost of $18.64 per tonne. Iron Bridge magnetite shipments surged over 40% year-on-year, progressively lifting average realised prices. Electrification is already saving roughly $100 million per year in fuel costs, a direct hedge against the Iran conflict diesel price shock. Deep China ties via CMRG and a

HUB24

Core

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#1 for 8 Consecutive Quarters HUB24 (ASX: HUB) is a winner in Australia’s shift away from bank-owned investment platforms. Record 1H26 net inflows up +34% have seen funds under administration reach $152.3 billion, while underlying net profit has surged 60%. This confirms, in our view, that HUB24’s growth engine is accelerating. Management upgraded FY27 funds guidance to $160-$170 billion mid-cycle. HUB24’s business model is capital-light and fee-based, with operating profit margins expanding. Market share remains just 9.3%, leaving a growth runway ahead. In our

Collins Foods

Core

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Adiós Taco Bell Collins Foods (ASX: CKF) dipped as the fast-food operator opted to exit the Taco Bell brand in Australia, with 20 stores transferring to Yum Brands and Restaurant Brands affiliates, along with existing leases and staff. We see this as a net positive, eliminating a persistent profit drag and management distraction. The business is now focused on the successful KFC business. With roughly 285 KFC restaurants in Australia delivering positive same-store sales growth and a binding Yum Brands agreement to

Capstone Copper

Speculative

high

Standout Copper Exposure Capstone Copper (ASX: CSC) is a Canadian-domiciled copper producer operating long‑life mines in the US, Mexico and Chile. The company’s standout features are its pure‑play leverage to copper with meaningful by‑product credits in silver, gold, molybdenum, and zinc. The miner has a portfolio concentrated in tier‑one copper jurisdictions (low political risk), with a healthy organic growth pipeline. Capstone recently delivered a 4th year of record production, up 22% year-on-year, at competitive production costs. We are bullish on copper

Woodside Energy

Core

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Texas Ammonia Facility Now Operational at 1.1Mt Annual Capacity Woodside (ASX: WDS) has activated a new earnings engine: the Beaumont ammonia facility in Texas with 1.1 million tonnes per year capacity is now operational, generating immediate US dollar cash flows that diversify beyond liquefied natural gas and are expected to boost free cash flow in 2026. The Pluto LNG facility restarted swiftly after cyclone damage, demonstrating operational resilience. Global gas markets remain tight on Iran-related supply concerns, directly benefiting Woodside’s contracted LNG

Global X Physical Gold Structured ETF (GOLD)

Core

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Navigating the Turbulence: Why the Structural Bull Case for Gold Remains Unbroken For investors, the events of March 2026 have been undeniably jarring and have extended to a sharp correction in gold prices. After watching gold surge to a record high of US$5,600 on the Comex futures market, the subsequent plunge has tested the conviction of even seasoned market participants. When geopolitical conflicts erupt – such as the Iran conflict – traditional market theory dictates that safe-haven assets like gold should

Global X Uranium ETF (ATOM)

Speculative

high

Nuclear’s Momentum Builds: The Market Offers a Better Entry Point Uranium prices touched US$101/lb in late January, the highest since early 2024, then pulled back roughly -17% to sit around US$84/lb as we write. That correction is worth examining because the pullback has nothing to do with the structural story but rather with some natural correction after a sprint higher in January, exacerbated by the broader risk-off mood since the beginning of the Iran conflict. In our view, the thesis is

APA Group

Core

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18-Month Portfolio Clean-Up DONE APA Group (ASX: APA) is executing a simple growth strategy that involves a cleanup of the company’s portfolio. The completed Allgas sale caps an 18-month portfolio divestment program where several smaller assets have been sold, and funds directed towards higher-returning gas pipelines, backup power generation and renewable energy projects. The $50 million cost-cutting programme is on track, and APA now has an efficient balance sheet. A c6% prospective dividend yield (underpinned by long-dated infrastructure revenues contracts) along with

Westpac

Core

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Technology Transformation: On Time and On Budget Westpac’s (ASX: WBC) technology transformation is reducing risk rapidly through multiple initiatives. Over 180 antiquated legacy computer systems have been shut down, which adds to our argument that Australian banks are in a multi-year cost-out phase. Meanwhile, the BT funds business recently passed $150 billion in funds. Westpac’s 1Q26 statutory net profit rose 5% to hit $1.9 billion, on the back of robust profit margins on the loan book and falling costs. This supports a generous dividend payout plus

Suncorp

Core

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Profit Margin at Top of the Target Suncorp’s (ASX: SUN) underlying insurance profit margin of 11.7% sits at the top of their 10-12% target range for the seventh consecutive half, confirming successful pricing. A return approaching 5% on reinvested bonds, combined with the RBA hiking to 4.10% (with more expected!), will materially lift investment income on Suncorp’s over $15 billion portfolio as older bonds mature and are replaced at higher rates. Capital remains strong after the bank sale. Higher bond yields deliver

ANZ Banking Group

Core

medium

Premium Franchise and Rising Earnings ANZ (ASX: ANZ) is compounding NIM expansion and franchise strength simultaneously. 1Q26 cash profit surged versus 2H25 quarterly averages, Group NIM expanded slightly, and CET1 is well above regulatory minimums. With the RBA at 4.10% and possibly moving to 4.35%, asset yields continue to reprice favourably. Mortgage arrears at just ~0.8% confirm loan quality remains excellent. ANZ’s premium franchise, fully-franked dividend, and rising earnings create a compelling total-return setup. In our last tech update on the 13th of February,

Evolution Mining

Speculative

high

A tactical buying opportunity Six weeks ago, we held our fire on Evolution Mining with a hold rating as the stock stormed to all-time highs at about A$17.70 following a record 1H26 result. The subsequent 30% correction has burned off that premium. We see this as a tactical buying opportunity in a still favourable gold/copper environment. FY26 guidance looks achievable; the balance sheet has strengthened to support higher dividends and project investment. The company’s asset base is long-life and high-margin,

SRG Global

Core

medium

Rating Update: Better Value on Offer The mid-cap industrials sell-off of the past several weeks has been broad, and SRG Global wasn’t spared, though the stock has held up better than many. In our last note on SRG Global in mid-February, we recommended taking some partial profits with a sell-half note. As we write this note, the shares are trading approximately 16% below record highs, without negative company-specific catalysts. Indeed, the stock joined the ASX200 on Monday morning (23 March

QBE Insurance

Core

medium

Buying and Selling Businesses QBE (ASX: QBE) is executing a textbook business transformation. Selling the commoditised trade credit insurance business (~US$200 million revenue) to Swiss Re to redeploy funds into higher-margin specialty insurance, taking full ownership of the Indian joint venture to capture one of the world’s fastest-growing insurance markets at minimal cost. QBE is also launching a Bermuda operation for large, complex corporate risks. The world-first fully automated underwriting system structurally lowers operating costs and scales specialised insurance portfolios without proportionate staff increases. Recent moves in bond yields

Downer EDI

Speculative

high

What’s in Stock(land)? Downer EDI (ASX: DOW) announced a new facilities management contract with Stockland that adds around $100 million per year in recurring, predictable revenue from August 2026, complementing the $750 million, 15-year Chevron maintenance deal that started in January 2026. Together, these long-term contracts with financially strong clients shift earnings toward lower-risk, higher-quality work. Trading below March highs with a roughly 3.5% dividend yield, the market has yet to fully recognise the transformation that a growing base of contracted, recurring revenue deserves. In

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