FAT-AUS-1268 - Fat Prophets

Speculative

high

Hold

A Machine Running at Full Throttle Newmont delivered the most profitable quarter in its 105-year history in Q1. The stock has corrected almost 20% from the peak seen in January, as gold prices have retreated from that surge seen earlier in the year. At the time of writing, gold prices were trading at about $4,620/z, which is 5.7% lower than the average realised price of $4,900/oz enjoyed in Q1. We see scope for a period of consolidation in the gold

Capstone Copper

Speculative

high

Buy

Six Consecutive Quarters of Record Profit Capstone Copper (TSX: CS; ASX: CSC) delivered its strongest quarter on record, with EBITDA surging 83% year-on-year to US$329 million. That was achieved despite a 35-day worker strike at their Chilean mine, cutting roughly 5,000 tonnes of output. Copper sold at above the market average price of US$5.92 per pound. Full-year production guidance was unchanged, meaning the remaining three quarters should deliver materially higher volumes as the Chilean operation returns to normal. A second Chilean

Stockland Corporation

Core

medium

Hold

Strong Sales Setting Up 2H26 Stockland’s (ASX: SGP) March quarter delivered strong residential sales across the board. New housing lot sales rose 43% year-on-year to 2,164, with 6,721 contracts in hand. Their retirement and land lease communities recorded a quarterly sales record of 317 homes, up 162% year-on-year. Industrial and warehouse property re-leasing spreads came in at 31.1% with 96.1% occupancy. Full-year earnings guidance of 36.0-37.0 cents per share was reaffirmed, with settlements heavily weighted toward the 2H26. A 350MW data centre development in Victoria adds

Amcor

Core

medium

Hold

Incremental Progress Packaging giant Amcor (ASX: AMC) is making some tweaks, spending on a healthcare packaging facility in Malaysia, adding printing capacity in the Netherlands, and selling a smaller operation in Morocco to simplify the business. The 2025 acquisition of Berry Global catapulted the company into the position of the world’s largest consumer packaging group. Management has guided for solid FY earnings growth and cash flows, underpinned by synergies from the Berry integration – tracking ahead of schedule. In our last tech

Suncorp

Core

medium

Buy

Building a Bigger Buffer Before the Storm Suncorp (ASX: SUN) has put in place a new five-year protection plan that will shield the group from large weather-related losses, covering up to $800 million a year and $2.4 billion in total from FY27. Management says this should cap damage costs in about 90% of scenarios, free up around $100 million in capital and make profits less volatile, without changing their profit outlook, which remains at the upper end of the target range.

Woodside Energy

Core

medium

Hold

Solid Quarter, but the Heavy Lifting Is Still Ahead Woodside’s (ASX: WDS) March quarter ‘held the line’ as revenue rose 7% to US$3.26 billion on the back of higher oil and gas prices, which offset an 8% drop in production caused by bad weather. Full-year guidance was unchanged. Meanwhile, three major growth projects remain on schedule and on budget, with Scarborough 96% complete and targeting first exports in late 2026. The challenge is that all three projects are still absorbing heavy

Santos

Speculative

high

Buy

Full-Year Guidance Held as the Growth Engines Start Up Santos (ASX: STO) is on the verge of a significant production step-up, with two major projects moving from construction into full operation at the same time. Its Alaskan oil project is mechanically complete with first oil sales expected within weeks, targeting full output by early in the third quarter. Its offshore gas project has begun delivering its first cargoes. Full-year production guidance was unchanged, and the business generated US$383 million in free

Whitehaven Coal

Speculative

high

Buy

Steady Sales and Better Prices Make for a Positive Quarter Whitehaven’s (ASX: WHC) March quarter delivered steady coal sales of 6.8Mt, tracking toward the upper end of FY guidance despite wet season disruptions in Queensland. Prices improved across both steelmaking and ‘energy’ coal, with the latter achieving 101% of the benchmark price as Middle East tensions tightened global supply. Debt refinancing of US$900m locks in roughly $50-55m in annual interest savings from May 2026, while net debt has fallen to $0.6

Vicinity Centres

Core

medium

Buy

Guidance Upgraded to the Top of the Range Vicinity’s (ASX: VCX) shopping centre portfolio is performing well, with occupancy at 99.6%, retailer sales up 5.1% and full-year earnings guidance upgraded to the top of its target range. The company has bought full ownership of a Brisbane city centre property for $212 million, backed by $27 billion of government infrastructure ahead of the 2032 Olympics. A new luxury retail precinct at Chatswood Chase in Sydney opens from the fourth quarter. Asset sales

Fortescue

Speculative

high

Hold

Record Nine-Month Shipments; Market Hopes for More? Fortescue (ASX: FMG) shipped a record 148.Mt of iron ore in the 9M26 period, up 4% year-on-year, with FY guidance of 195-205Mt unchanged. Production costs were very competitive at US$18.3/t, 4% lower than the previous quarter. The company is investing heavily in renewable energy across their Western Australian operations, with a further US$680 million approved for green power infrastructure in April. In our last tech update on the 11th of March, we noted that “Fortescue encountered resistance above $23,

Northern Star

Speculative

high

Buy

Plant Expansion on Track to Lower Costs From FY27 Northern Star (ASX: NST) sold 381,000 ounces of gold in the March quarter, generating $301 million in free cash flow after all costs. The company held $320 million in net cash at quarter-end even after paying a $347 million dividend. A major processing plant expansion in Kalgoorlie remains on track for early FY27, which is expected to lower the cost of producing each ounce and unlock higher returns from a stockpile of

Scentre Group

Core

medium

Hold

99.8% Occupancy: Nowhere Left to Fill, Nowhere Left to Fall Australian REIT Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) continues to have best-in-class positioning and a solid management team, which is drive for shopping centre business. The shopping centres recorded $7bn in retail sales for the March quarter, up 5%, with annualised sales reaching a record $30.3bn across 42 properties. Occupancy across the portfolio sits at 99.8%, with effectively no vacancies. Consumers are still spending, with customer visits rising 3.1% YoY. Full-year earnings guidance of

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