Australasian Equities

Fat Prophets
Australasian Equities

Speculative

high

Drawing a Line Under Cerro Matoso South32’s (ASX: S32, LSEG: S32) exit from Cerro Matoso closes the chapter on a difficult, low-return asset and nudges the company further toward higher-margin, energy-transition metals. The sale cleans up long-term risks and offers modest upside through future payments, but doesn’t materially change earnings overnight. Investors now shift their attention to whether South32’s reshaped portfolio and upcoming projects can deliver steadier returns in a market that still moves with global sentiment and metal prices. In our last

Treasury Wine Estates

Core

medium

Clearing the Decks in the US Treasury Wine Estates’ (ASX: TWE) steep (~US$450mln) Americas impairment marks a long-needed reset rather than a collapse, clearing out inflated valuations after years of softer US market trends. The hit is non-cash, the premium brands remain resilient, and the share price slump has pushed the stock to decade-low levels that arguably reset expectations. The business now enters a cleaner starting point as the new CEO reshapes the US portfolio and focuses more on premium growth. In our

Fiducian

Core

medium

A Fork in the Road Fiducian (ASX: FID) is juggling a steady wealth-management business with a live ESG court case, positioning the group at a turning point. ASIC’s action creates a clear governance and reputational overhang, but it relates to a narrow, closed fund and not the group’s core advice and platform earnings. Profits and fully franked dividends appear resilient, leaving the stock discounted rather than fundamentally impaired. In our last tech update on the 9th of October, we noted that “After rebounding

Stockland Corporation

Core

medium

Building Growth One Brick at a Time Stockland (ASX: SGP) is leaning into long-term population and infrastructure trends, lifting its focus on large housing estates, modern warehouses and growing retirement communities. Their latest strategy updates show management aiming for steadier, more repeatable earnings by recycling older assets, securing strong tenants and expanding in high-demand growth corridors. The plan offers a clearer growth path, even if housing conditions, interest rates and planning approvals are headwinds to overcome. In our last tech update on the

Qantas

Core

high

Escaping Turbulent Skies Qantas Airways (ASX: QAN) is rebuilding steadily, with stronger profits, better operations and a clearer fleet plan, but much of the early recovery is already priced in. The shift to durable growth needs to impress to lift the stock further. In our last technical update back on the 12th of November, we noted that “Qantas has made a new record high above $12.50 and then encountered overhead resistance. The correction in Qantas since our September 1st update has been swift.

Genesis Minerals

Speculative

high

The Rumour Mill Recently, media reports surfaced in The Australian suggesting that Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) had sounded out Genesis regarding a potential merger. On paper, this would be a “Dream Team” scenario with great assets and excellent track records. A merger would create a budding tier 1 player with a fortress balance sheet. While investors shouldn’t buy or hold GMD (or CMM) solely on M&A arbitrage hopes, it does remain a potential factor. The elevated gold price environment will continue to

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