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Daily FatWrap

Chequered Flag

Chequered flag According to Goldman Sachs, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was more hawkish than many expected during the central bank’s press conference last week. However, Goldman’s Chief US Economist David Mericle still expects the Fed to cut rates next month. Last month, Jerome Powell said a rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion”, acknowledging “strongly different views” on the FOMC, which sets the fed funds rate. The policy committee cut its target rate in October for the second…
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Breaking the cycle

Three Crocodiles Whilst in the near term, a number of key risks have been taken off the table, the markets still need to navigate policy uncertainty around the Fed decision in December – and the path of future easing. Despite this uncertainty, the setup for equities looks favourable into year-end and in early 2026. Our call for a solid finish to the year remains intact, and I think there is upside risk, notably with international markets. JP Morgan noted on…
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Pushback

Falling Behind the Curve The reporting season has so far delivered solid results for the corporate sector, which have beaten analyst estimates by the most since 2021. Most US companies appear relatively unscathed by tariffs so far, with rising costs being absorbed by a combination of price hikes and cost cuts. As earnings roll in, companies in the S&P 500 are on course to deliver the highest sales beat ratio since 2021. The consensus view among top strategists is that the strongest revenue…
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Corrections are inevitable

The correction in stock markets I have looked for in October has proven elusive in what has been a choppy month. International equity markets have corrected, and the lows are potentially in for Asian markets. China/Hong Kong stocks could soon resume an upward trajectory if a trade deal is reached with the US. Japanese markets lifted strongly yesterday on signs that political uncertainty around the recent election could soon be resolved. Aside from some bouts of volatility in the US,…
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A similar ‘cycle’

A sour note While the “buy the dip” mentality was on display Monday, the correction could have further to go in October, which is seasonally still one of the weakest months of the year. The selloff has not just been limited to the US, but other markets, which have rallied hard this year, including Japan and China/Hong Kong, have also corrected sharply. Japan was closed for a public holiday, and futures are pointing to weakness on the open today. I…
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The First Innings

Echoes of 1999. History doesn’t always repeat, but “often rhymes”. As “animal spirits” around AI have gathered steam in recent weeks, the bull market has rolled on, which has elicited a number of warnings of a speculative bubble that could rival the dot-com craze of the late 1990s. In 2000, the Nasdaq technology index topped out and then entered a sharp decline that ended in a spectacular wave of bankruptcies. Legendary hedge fund Paul Tudor Jones said during an interview…
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Stock Disclosure

ASX- Listed Australian stocks:

A1M, AAC, ABX, ABY, ADI.AU, AKE, ALK, AMC, AMI, ANN, ANZ, APA, ARB, ASM, AZS, BFC, BFC.AU, BHP, BKL, BLD, BOQ, BUB, BWP, CAT, CHC.AU, CHN.AX, CKF, CNR, COF.AX, CQE.AU, CSL, DHG, DMP, DXS.AU, ECF.AX, EHE.AUX, ELD, ENN.AX, ESS, EVN.AU, FAL, FATP.AX, FID, FMG, FPC.AU, FPP, GBS, GOLD, GOR.AU, GPT.AU, HUB, IDX, IGO, IPL, JHC.AX, JHX, KRR, MCR, MPL, NAB, NCM.AU, NEC, NML, NSR.AU, NST.AX, NUF, NXM, ORA, ORI, PAN, PAR.AU, PPS, PRN, QAN, QBE, RED, RIO, RXL, S32, SBM, SCG.AU, SCG-2, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SRG, SRV.AU, SSPG-2, SSR, STO, SUN, SVY, TLS, TPG, TRS, TWE, VCX, WBC, WDS, WHC, X64, PDN, GNC, MGR, TYR, ATOM, 29M, RRL.AU, STO.AX, WDS.AX & GMD.AX

International stocks:

3382, 3690, 5930, 6506, 6954, 8058, 9432, 1128.HKE, 1818.HKE, 1821.HK, 1876.HKE, 1928.HKE, 1972.HKE, 2282.HKE, 2840.HKE, 2883.HKE, 3289.TKS, 3690.HKE, 388.HKE, 435.HK, 5929.TKS, 6367.TKS, 6481.TKS, 6758.TKS, 683.HKE, 69.HKE, 700.HKE, 7167.TKS, 7186.TKS, 7974.TKS, 823.HK, 8306.JP, 8316.JP, 8331.T, 8411.T, 8604.TKS, 8604-2, 8801.JP, 8804.TKS, 9684.TKS, AAL, AAPL.NAS, ABX.TSX, ACA.PAR, AIR, AMH.NYS, AMS, AMS.MAD, ANGPY, ANTO, APF, ARF, AT1.ETR, ATVI, ATYM, AUTO.LSE, AV, AVB.US, BA, BABA.NYS, BAC, BARC, BBOX.LSE, BGFD, BHP.NYS, BHR.NYS, BIDU.NAS, BKIA, BMW, BN, BNP.PAR, BP, BT.A, BXP.NYS, C, CAST.SE, CAT, CCH, CCL.LSE, CDE.NYS, CDE.US, CEY, CHL, COL.ES, CQR, CSCO, CSGN, CUZ.NYS, CVO.PA, DGE, DHC, DHI, DIS, DIS.NYS, DLR.NYS, DOM.LSE, ECMPA.AMS, ENAV-uk, ENTRA.OSL, ENX.PAR, EQIX, ESS.US, EXR.NYS, EZJ, FDX, FRES.LSE, G24, GDX.LSE, GDXJ.LSE, GDXJ.US, GEMD, GLD.ARC, GLEN, GOCO, GOLD.NYS, GOOG, GRG, GSK, HDB, HEIA.AMS, HL, HLT.NYS, HMY, HMY.NYS, HSW, HUFV.SE, IAG, IBN, IMG, IMPUY, ITRK, ITV, JHX.NYS, JP.8308, KGC, KIM.US, KNEBV.HEL, KWS, LEG.ETR, LEN, LGEN, LLOY, LRE, LSE, LVMH, MC.PAR, MCRO, MCRO.LSE, MKS, MOL, MONY, MRL.ES, MTN.NYS, NEM, NG, NSR, NWH.U.CA, NWH.UN.TSX, OXY, PETS, PG, PHE, PHE.LSE, PLATJPN, PLD.US, PLEF, PLG.CA, POLY, PPH, PSA.NYS, PZC, RB, REL, RELX, RI, RIGD, RIGD.LSI, RING, RMV.LSE, RNK, RR, SGE, SGRO.GB, SHEL, SIL, SKT, SKT.US, SLP, SMDS, SMI, SMSN.LSI, SN, SNE, SPG.US, SPK, SRC.US, STAY.NAS, SYY, TGYM, TJX.NYS, TME, TRNO.US, TSM, TTWO, TWR, UBER, ULVR, UMH.NYS, VER, VNO.NYS, VOD, VOW, VTR.US, WELL.K, WMG.NAS, WYNN, XERI.PK, XOM, YTRA, YUMC, ZG.NAS, URA, HEM.SE, 9888.CN, 9988.HK, 7163.JP, CDE.US, GENI.GB, PDN.AX, RIOT.US & ZG.US